The 4% strategy revisited: a pre-commitment mean-variance optimal approach to wealth management

In contrast to single-period mean-variance (MV) portfolio allocation, multi-period MV optimal portfolio allocation can be modified slightly to be effectively a down-side risk measure. With this in mind, we consider multi-period MV optimal portfolio allocation in the presence of periodic withdrawals. The investment portfolio can be allocated between a risk-free investment and a risky asset, the price of which is assumed to follow a jump diffusion process. We consider two wealth management applications: optimal de-accumulation rates for a defined contribution pension plan and sustainable withdrawal rates for an endowment. Several numerical illustrations are provided, with some interesting implications. In the pension de-accumulation context, Bengen (1994)’s [J. Financial Planning, 1994, 7, 171–180], historical analysis indicated that a retiree could safely withdraw 4% of her initial retirement savings annually (in real terms), provided that her portfolio maintained an even balance between diversified equities and U.S. Treasury bonds. Our analysis does support 4% as a sustainable withdrawal rate in the pension de-accumulation context (and a somewhat lower rate for an endowment), but only if the investor follows an MV optimal portfolio allocation, not a fixed proportion strategy. Compared with a constant proportion strategy, the MV optimal policy achieves the same expected wealth at the end of the investment horizon, while significantly reducing the standard deviation of wealth and the probability of shortfall. We also explore the effects of suppressing jumps so as to have a pure diffusion process, but assuming a correspondingly larger volatility for the latter process. Surprisingly, it turns out that the MV optimal strategy is more effective when there are large downward jumps compared to having a high volatility diffusion process. Finally, tests based on historical data demonstrate that the MV optimal policy is quite robust to uncertainty about parameter estimates.     

A lattice-based model to evaluate variable annuities with guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefits under a regime-switching model

We consider the problem of evaluating variable annuities with a guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefit under a regime-switching model. We propose a trinomial lattice model to approximate the evolution of the investment fund value and the policy value at inception is computed through a backward induction scheme. Finally, the insurance fee is computed as the solution of the equation that makes the contract actuarially fair. Numerical results are reported to illustrate the consistency of the proposed model.     

New development: Are social impact bonds (SIBs) viable in Italy? A new roadmap

This paper presents a roadmap to support the development of social impact bonds (SIBs) in Italy. Current barriers and opportunities are explained. SIBs should be piloted in areas where the cultural, ideological, technical and governance barriers are low. Accurate measurement systems will be necessary and an effective governance structure needs to be agreed. With careful piloting and follow-up, the SIB model could be a solution to welfare and public service funding in Italy.     

Using Cash to Monitor Liquidity: Implications for Payments,Currency Demand,and Withdrawal Behavior

This paper provides one explanation why cash is still used for transactions despite a broad diffusion of noncash payment instruments. In particular, we argue that a distinctive feature of cash—a glance into one's pocket gives a signal of the remaining budget and past expenses—provides utility to some consumers. Using payment survey data, we show that consumers who need to keep control over their remaining liquidity and who have elevated costs of information processing conduct a larger percentage of payments using cash, withdraw less often, and hold larger cash balances than other consumers.     

永久性最低提取利益保证变额年金的公平保证费用定价

近年来,我国的人口老龄化趋势严重,截止到2012年底,年龄超过60岁的人口已达1.94亿,占总人口的14.3%,预计在2013年突破2亿。因此,老年人口的养老问题日益受到社会关注。在养老工具里面,相对于具有较低稳定收益的传统养老保险和没有最低保证的投连险,投资人(或投保人)更愿意选择具有最低利益保证的变额年金保险。在转移长寿风险的同时,投资人(或投保人)既有最低利益保证,又有可能获得更高的投资收益。因此有最低利益保证的变额年金未来会是年金保险的主流产品。本文对此进行探讨,为国内保险公司设计开发此类产品提供理论指导和参考。     

农村“三权”抵押贷款问题研究--基于安徽省宣城市的案例分析

现行法律关于宅基地使用权、土地经营权、林权等农村“三权”抵押贷款的规定存在一定限制,在抵押物处置、评估手段等方面仍面临亟待解决的问题。安徽省宣城市在全国率先开展农村“三权”抵押贷款试点,为推进新型城镇化建设和社会主义新农村建设提供了有益经验。文章以宣城市243户农户的调查问卷为样本,通过Logistic回归模型分析影响农户参与农村“三权”抵押贷款意愿的各种因素,并就进一步推广“三权”抵押贷款提出有关法律政策建议。     

信息时代员工“缺席与逃离”：工作连通的负面效应研究

基于主体能动性理论,通过229份有效问卷调查分析,探讨工作连通对工作退缩行为的影响及作用机制。研究发现：工作连通与工作退缩行为、工作连通与角色超载均正相关;角色超载工作连通和工作退缩之间起中介作用;辱虐型领导调节了工作连通和工作退缩行为之间的关系,当辱虐型领导越强,工作连通与工作退缩的正向关系越强。     

金融机构市场退出的若干问题及立法完善

金融机构市场退出是金融发展中不可避免的现象,也是金融稳定和提高金融市场效率的客观要求.我国已有的相关立法和实践表明,现行的市场退出制度尚存在诸多的空白和缺陷.本文从介绍国外金融机构市场退出的制度入手,分析了我国金融机构市场退出的现状和存在的问题,着重从市场退出制度的立法层面探讨了构建我国金融机构市场退出法律框架的相关问题.作者指出市场退出应遵循五大原则;立法应明确市场退出的主持机构和具体职责;应视不同情况分别采取解散、撤销及破产三种退出方式,完善程序立法;并尽快建立存款保险制度作为配套机制,以完善我国市场退出的制度建设.     

计划行为理论视角下环境感知对农户宅基地退出意愿的影响研究基于上海涉农郊区农户的调查

目的 以计划行为理论为视角,从影响农户意愿的行为态度、主观规范和知觉行为控制3个层面出发,建立影响农户宅基地退出的计划行为理论分析框架。方法 文章基于上海市涉农郊区的农户调查数据,建立结构方程模型实证分析计划行为理论视角下农户的环境感知对宅基地退出意愿的影响。结果 研究发现,农户环境感知3个维度对宅基地退出意愿均有显著影响,综合路径系数从大到小依次为禀赋环境感知（0.503）＞政策环境感知（0.208）＞公共服务环境感知（0.175）。农户对禀赋环境、政策环境和公共服务环境3个维度的感知均对农户宅基地退出意愿有显著的正向影响。其中农户的禀赋环境感知路径系数最大,政策环境感知次之,公共服务环境感知的路径系数最小。结论 基于以上的影响因素分析,政府在改进宅基地退出有关政策时,应着重注意宅基地退出的经济补偿和退后农户的公共服务质量,同时保障政策执行的透明度和知情度。     

农户社会资本与宅基地退出意愿——基于抗险能力的中介效应分析

目的 将社会资本理论引入农户宅基地退出意愿问题研究,探究社会资本及各构成维度对农户宅基地退出意愿的影响和作用机制,以期为提升农户意愿提供参考。方法 基于苏北地区沛县和丰县的共411份农户调研数据,构建农户社会资本测度指标体系,并运用Logit模型、中介效应模型实证研究了社会资本对农户宅基地退出意愿的影响及抗险能力的中介效应。结果 （1）社会资本对农户的宅基地退出意愿具有显著的正向影响,社会资本越丰富的农户宅基地退出意愿越强;（2）各构成维度均显著影响农户宅基地退出意愿,且影响方向均为正,效用强度从大到小依次为社会规范（0.116）、社会网络（0.065）、社会参与（0.064）、社会信任（0.032）、社会声望（0.031）;（3）抗险能力在社会资本和各维度对农户宅基地退出意愿的影响过程中均具有中介效应,社会资本和各维度不仅可以直接影响农户的宅基地退出意愿,还可以通过抗险能力产生间接影响,但影响以直接效应为主。结论 社会资本和抗险能力是影响农户宅基地退出意愿的重要因素,政府部门在宅基地退出工作推进中,应立足农户的社会属性,加大农户社会资本培育力度,完善风险分担机制,提高农户收入水平。